🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Participant Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion surged in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But these probabilities had climbed to over 10% by shortly before midnight and surged in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," said an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule presented on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports to political events. The industry were examined under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."